Hybrid Regimes
2024-10-24
Hong Kong
Special administrative region since 1984
Economically polarized, free, but under Chinese authority
Important for Chinese economy, but also in tension with governing structure
Protest activity
Precursors
Pre-2014 events
2003 security legislation
2006/2007 opposition to pier developments
2009 railway demonstrations
2012 Student’s protest
2013 TV licensure protests
Student sit-in protesting the demolition of Star Ferry pier
Each round of events leads to new organizations, media outlets, and noted activists entering the scene
Demand for universal suffrage
Triggers
- Activists promote at June 2014 civic referendum on electing a chief executive by popular vote. Chinese government releases a white paper that implies that Hong Kong has too much autonomy
- Election referendum draws significant turnout.
- Mainland committee rules in August: “the Chief Executive shall be a person who loves the country and loves Hong Kong” (pre-screening of candidates)
Student walk-out (September 22, 2014)
Occupation
Activists proposed an occupation of a central square in 2013, but had limited support
Event was planned for October 1 (a national holiday) but a handful of students jumped a fence in Civic Square on September 26 2014
State response
Umbrella revolution (2014)
Public response
Expanded contention
Non-violent but disruptive protests (umbrellas)
Polarization (emergence of anti-occupy protesters)
Drawdown
Anti-Extradition protests
February 2019: Chinese government proposes an extradition bill that would cover Hong Kong (as well as Macau and Taiwan)
- Prompted by a murder case, but widely understood to have implications for dissent
Pan democrats attempt to filibuster, but legislative efforts are not effective
Anti-Extradition protests: Early stages
First protests in March/April 2019. Government proposes some amendments to raise the threshold for extradition in May.
June 9 2019 protest draws between 200,000 (police estimates) to over 1 million (organizer estimates) to the streets.
Anti-Extradition protests: Repertoire shift
Non-violent tactics:
- marches, work-stoppages, protest art
Violent/Destructive tactics:
Black bloc, fights with police/counter-protesters
Attacks on pro-mainland businesses and celebrities
Economic disruption: occupations, coordinated cash withdrawal
Both factions used private messaging apps to coordinate, share information, and make decisions
Anti-Extradition protests: Repression
Mainland government used domestic censorship and international propaganda
Hong Kong police adopted aggressive protest policing tactics:
“less lethal” weapons: 16,000 rounds of tear gas in from June to December vs. 87 rounds in the entire 2014 occupation
kettling
tolerating violence from counter protesters
Counter protesters engaged in heated - often violent confrontations - with five demands protesters
Anti-Extradition protests: Repression
The Yuen Long attack, believed to have been conducted by local villagers and gangs of triad (criminal secret society) members, shocked Hong Kong and led to a widespread believe [sic] that the Police were in collusion with triads. This event turned a substantial number of the passive Hong Kong population against the Police, and many people started to label the Police as ‘haak ging’ (黑警), or ‘black police’ - former Hong Kong police officer (source)
Anti-Extradition protests: drawdown
Anti-Extradition protests: Aftermath
2020 bill criminalizes a wider range of dissent under prohibitions on “secession”, “subversion” or “terrorism”.
- 260 arrests by July 2023, including prominent pro-democracy leaders
Allows Hong Kong residents to be extradited to mainland China for some crimes
Beijing appointed advisor to oversee a Hong Kong security force
Five Demands remain popular in polls, and National Security law is unpopular, but not clear this matters
Hybrid regimes and protest
